Traffic on Ellsworth Street in downtown Albany at 2:40 p.m. Monday, Dec. 22, 2025.
Sitting in Albany traffic on a weekday afternoon, I sometimes wonder where all these people are coming from and where are they going?
And that more or less naturally turns to thoughts about growth. Population growth, that is.
As it turns out, the city of Albany didn’t grow at all in recent months. At least not according to the population experts at Portland State University.
The Population Research Center at Portland State is charged with establishing official population estimates for Oregon counties and cities, and thus for the state as a whole.
On Dec. 15 the center issued its certified estimates for 2025, along with revised certified estimates for 2024.
According to the center, Albany had 57,897 inhabitants in 2025, up a whopping 16 from the certified estimate of 2024. That’s a growth rate of 0.03 percent, petty close to zero.
Something about these numbers doesn’t seem right. Albany adds an average of 200 or 300 dwelling units a year, according to the city. These units all fill up sooner or later because there is supposed to be a housing shortage. So how come the population estimate does not go up accordingly?
Millersburg’s certified population estimate also stayed flat. The town added mere three people, supposedly, from last year. This year’s certified number is 3,214.
Corvallis, strangely, added 314 inhabitants over the year and now is certified to have a population of 61,247.
The Population Research Center doesn’t say how it counts university students as part of its estimate. But clearly enrollment at OSU adds lots of temporary residents to the Corvallis total.
Here’s why I suspect that’s so. Corvallis has fewer than 33,000 registered voters. But Albany, with a smaller overall population, has about 42,000. I’m assuming that the Corvallis population figure includes many students from elsewhere who don’t bother to register as local voters while they’re at school.
Another thing about population growth:
Albany says in its city planning documents that it needs thousands of additional housing units in order to accommodate population growth over the coming years. The city projects a population of around 72,000 in 2040, based on forecasts by the Portland State center.
If you think traffic is bad now…
But if Albany grows as little as it seemed to grow this year, that forecast may be wildly off. (hh)
PSU’s and the City’s population estimates are wildly different. To reach the 72k figure the city would have to grow 1.5% (~950 people) every year for the next 15 years. On what, then, do our planners base their estimates?
Bingo! I’ve been saying this for years! Show the taxpayers of Albany the data supporting the need for more apartment complexes? Not only is the city council approving the apartment growth but also granting the developers a 10 year property tax exemption. Where do they think the revenue to pay the city services comes from? If you grow by building single family homes you have an immediate taxpayer upon the sale of the home. Our current state puts all the city service tax burden on current taxpayers. This is not sustainable
IT’S THAT FUZZY MATH THING AGAIN….OH MY
MAYBE JUST MAYBE THEY SHOULD BE PRO ACTIVE AND INSTEAD OF MILLIONS BEING SPENT ON HOUSING THAT DOESN’T HAVE OCCUPANTS YET, THE ONES PUSHING THIS SHOULD FIX THE ROADS, ADD NEW ROADS , FIX THE WATER AND ELECTRICAL GRID AND MAKE THOSE OF US WHO LIVE HERE COMFORTABLE FIRST……AFTER ALL WE ARE THE ONES FOOTING THE TAX BILLS.
Having first moved to Albany at 4 years old when the official population was around 14,000, there has been a lot of growth over the years. Tacking on North Albany was a big addition as was expanding the city border south along Pacific Blvd. The Mid-Valley is the sweet spot in all of Oregon. I am not surprised to see it grow
Now, if we could make North Albany a separate City (again?),like Millersburg , we could save millions by avoiding those state mandates for cities over 50 thousand!
North Albany was never a city, There was talk about it but before it could happen Millersburg became a city and our elected reps in Salem passed a law prohibiting a city being established within, if memory serves me, 3 miles of and existing city.
Thank you for that information. I don’t doubt it, even though I can’t imagine a justification for it. We keep voting for people who hate any freedom.
Get over the bridge now! Closing soon MAGA! Get home now!
Some of the projected growth is due to marketing the mid valley by the real estate industry. They know all too well that many people, especially from CA, can be marketed to. Also investors, looking to capitalize on real estate, can purchase housing and put it on air and. Big cash cow. Marketing increases demand. A lot of folks are banking on that. But what if it doesn’t happen?
Nothing like paying for the people who don’t live here yet.
Housing supply growth is how rent prices become more affordable. Nicer new apartments will command higher rents, and older less desirable units will have to lower rent prices to attract occupants. This is how the free market can work to make Albany more affordable. Good news for an abundance of people in our community living on $20 bucks an hour!