Struggling up the Willamette Monday, this paddler in the distance practiced social distancing too.
In the Albany area as well as Oregon as a whole, the COVID-19 outbreak has been been more or less level the whole time it has been of concern. State officials say the stay-home mandate and the edict to close restaurants and the like has been working, so keep it up. But how do they know the restrictions are what did it?
By March 18, three Oregon deaths had been blamed on the virus, and the known case total of infections statewide was 10. On March 23 the governor issued her stay-home executive order. On April 10, two and a half weeks later, the state reported the highest number of new cases, 100 that day, and the death toll had climbed to 26.
Since then, the number of new cases each day has remained well below 100. On the last four days, new cases numbered 51 on April 10, 76 on April 11, 80 on April 12, and 57 on April 13. The deaths blamed on the virus, all of people aged 66 to 94 with “underlying conditions,” on those days numbered 4, then 3, and one each on the last two days.
Linn County had three new cases (no deaths) over the last four days. Benton County had two.
As far as deadly epidemics go, these numbers speak for themselves.
So, are the state-imposed measures — to the extent they are observed — working to keep the contagion under control? The only way to tell is to compare Oregon with a control group, a state similar to Oregon in geography, population, and every other way. We don’t have one. So we can’t know. (hh)
Perhaps there is a something akin to a control group after all. How do these numbers you mention compare to Oregon flu cases and deaths in 2019, 2018, 2017? Or for that matter, overall deaths for those years?
In 2018, 530 people died from the flu in Oregon. In 2017, it was 573. In 2016, 452. In 2015, 453. Those numbers will probably go down in 2020 because of social distancing. Car wrecks will also be down. Overall, the death rate for everything will probably be lower in 2020 than in other years since we’re all stuck inside. I can feel my immune system weakening by the day.
Except suicide, heart disease, diabetes, will all go up.
We have highly trained epidemiologists and other experts in infectious diseases who know based on extensive research how viruses spread and what types of human conduct either promote that spread or retard it. While we may not be able to measure with exactitude the effect of isolation we have a good sense that it has a significant effect. Sometimes we have to trust the experts.
Watching the experts on TV is enlightening. About once a day they say we have anecdotal evidence that supports somebody’s actual experience in treating the virus but until we have a study we can’t approve it. The firm that has a test which would show if a person has had the virus can’t get it approved by the FDA. If these so called medical experts were in charge of D-Day World War II would still be going on. For all you lovers of computer modeling which shows what the climate is going to be in 50 years, are you impressed with the same modeling methods which started out showing virus deaths at 2,000,000 in the US?
As some medical experts are advising, Gov. Brown’s lockdown must go on until every Oregonian is vaccinated and issued a state immunity card.
If this takes 18-24 months, so be it.
In the meantime, continued government bailouts and stimulus checks are a suitable substitute for gainful employment. And the watching of PBS must be mandated to keep the toadies calm.
For the insubordinate citizens, a strategy will be needed to quell the expected rioting.
The problem Hasso is that the numbers are nebulous, How many folks have Corona?? no one knows because they haven’t been tested, and those that have been, the tests give both false negatives and false positives….
The whole thing takes me back to the Obama administration, first there was “hope and change” something that there is not a definition for, and then he was “creating or saving jobs” something that you can not count. With all that lack of information, how do you make a decision, what, on how you feel??? To those of us who run on facts, it leaves us without a viable basis for reasoning…
Don’t often agree with you but do here. We are flying blind and the less you know about something the more conservative your decision making has to be. Though on the flip side of your hope and change thing maga doesn’t have a real clear definition either.
Ean,
In either case what you had and now have for hope and change and MAGA, is:
What was it before and what is it now.. we know what happened, the why is the question now…
Yes, I keep seeing how few new cases Benton county has compared to others, but I also see how few tests they are doing. Is that because they don’t have people that need tested or are they just not testing as many?